Down-ballot Democrats' hopes could depend on Davis

AUSTIN - Texas Democrats, who have not won a statewide election since 1994, are salivating at the prospect of Wendy Davis leading the charge for down-ballot candidates and pumping new energy into a depleted party.

Yet, as Davis prepares to announce whether she will run for governor Oct. 3, Democratic and progressive candidates and activists are not holding their breath for a statewide victory in 2014.

Some believe the popular Fort Worth state senator holds the key to turning the tide in red Texas, but others maintain the steep challenge can be conquered only by a slate of top-notch candidates, an army of volunteers and some catastrophic gaffes by heavily favored Republicans.

"I hope that Democrats get up and get to work on this," said Steve Mostyn, a Houston lawyer and major Democratic donor. "It doesn't just take a charismatic candidate such as Wendy Davis. It's going to take a lot of work from a lot of people, and if we will understand that, then we have a shot, but that is yet to be seen."

Fourteen statewide posts, including governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, agriculture, land and railroad commissioners, six judicial seats and a U.S. Senate seat, are up for grabs in November 2014. Only one Democrat, Mike Collier, a Houston businessman running for comptroller, has thrown his hat in the ring.

Meanwhile, Republicans are stepping on each other to get their campaigns moving.

Many potential or former statewide Democratic candidates have declined a run in 2014, which some critics equate to a lack of confidence in the party.

Former Houston mayor and gubernatorial candidate Bill White took a pass, saying he is "enjoying being in business." Former state Rep. Steve Wolens, D-Dallas, who has more than $1 million in his campaign account, said he plans to run statewide but not in 2014.

Weak foundation

Austin attorney Keith Hampton, who ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat for presiding seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals in 2012, said the party's infrastructure, or "ground game," is not yet strong enough to support a statewide candidate.

Battleground Texas, a grass-roots organization created by President Barack Obama campaigners aimed at turning Texas into a competitive state, has said it does not expect an immediate swing in a state as politically lopsided as Texas.

Jason Stanford, a Democratic consultant and pundit, said Davis is one of the most exciting candidates the party has had in years, but stressed the need for a team of strong candidates.

"She is not only a base turnout operation all on her own, but she has the ability to get crossover voters," Stanford said. "She is exactly the kind of candidate you want to build a team around."

The members of any statewide blue team are not apparent.

Candidates have been hesitant to get on board officially, at least until Davis finalizes her decision next month.

State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, created buzz among Democrats recently by saying she is considering a run for lieutenant governor but emphasized she will not decide until Davis does.

State Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, said he is considering a run for attorney general.

Thinking it over

"Politics is about timing," Uresti said. "And I certainly think it's the right time for the Democratic Party, and for myself as well."

Other candidates being courted by Democrats to make the leap are state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, who has more than $1 million in his campaign account, state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas and state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin. None returned calls for comment.

Political scientists agree a Davis gubernatorial run would boost other Democrats.

"Wendy Davis would not be able to help no-name Democrats for lieutenant governor, comptroller and attorney general, but if you had recognizable names with their own accomplishments you could get a cumulative, positive effect," said Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

Jillson said it is more likely Democrats will pick up a number of state House seats rather than a statewide post in 2014.

"When you're 0-for-100, you start looking for singles rather than home runs," Jillson said.

A Davis run could draw a significant number of straight-ticket Democratic voters, which would provide a needed boost for down-ballot candidates.

Jeff Blaylock, a former lobbyist conducting research on voter trends, said 28 percent of all votes cast in Texas were straight-ticket Democrat in 2012; 34 percent were straight Republican.

Stanford said he expects to have a top-notch team of Democratic candidates on the ticket in 2014, led by Davis.

"But if Wendy doesn't run," he said, "I'm not sure there is enough whiskey in Austin."